The agency, however, expects India’s GDP to rebound and grow at 9.9% year-on-year in FY22 mainly due to the weak base of FY21.
Domestic rating agency India Ratings and Research on Tuesday revised the country’s FY21 GDP growth forecast to -11.8% from -5.3% earlier.
The agency, however, expects India’s gross domestic product (GDP) to rebound and grow at 9.9% year-on-year in FY22 mainly due to the weak base of FY21.
India Rating’s FY21 GDP growth forecast of -11.8% will be the lowest GDP growth in the Indian history (GDP data is available from FY-1951) and sixth instance of economic contraction, others being in FY-1958, FY-1966, FY-1967, FY-1973 and FY-1980, the rating agency said in a report.
The previous lowest was -5.2% in FY80, it said.
The agency said the -23.9 per cent growth in the first quarter of FY21 is the first contraction in quarterly GDP data series which has been made available in the public domain since the first quarter of FY98.
It estimates economic loss in FY21 to be ₹18.44 lakh crore.
According to the agency, the retail and wholesale inflation is expected to come in at 5.1% and -1.7%, respectively, in FY21.